AI rainfall forecast system to give UP farmers, disaster managers 10 day local weather alerts

LUCKNOW: For millions of farmers watching the skies and administrators racing against sudden floods and storms, more precise weather information can mean the difference between loss and timely action.

An artificial intelligence–driven High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecast (HSRRF) system has now been rolled out for Uttar Pradesh, promising greater accuracy rainfall forecasts up to 10 days in advance.Explaining the technology, Manish Ranalkar, station chief of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Uttar Pradesh station, said the HSRRF is an artificial intelligence-driven rainfall forecasting model capable of providing predictions at a spatial resolution of one km, up to ten days in advance.

The system was launched on Tuesday in New Delhi by Union Minister of State for Science and Technology Jitendra Singh as a pilot project under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.The HSRRF has been jointly developed by the IMD, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida.It integrates data from a wide range of observation platforms, including automatic rain gauges, automatic weather stations, Doppler weather radars, satellite-based rainfall estimates and upper air observations.

Advanced AI-based downscaling techniques are used to convert these inputs into highly granular forecasts.Ranalkar pointed out that Uttar Pradesh has the densest observational network in the country, which is a key strength of the model.“The state govt has installed around 2,450 observation stations, comprising nearly 2,000 automatic rain gauges and 450 automatic weather stations. These are supplemented by IMD’s own stations and manual observations.

While the physical infrastructure was funded by the state govt, the development of the AI forecasting model was carried out by central scientific institutions. The model operates from Delhi, with forecast products being supplied to the Meteorological Centre in Lucknow for statewide use,” said Ranalkar while speaking to TOI.The 2,450 observation stations were funded with Rs 140 crore by the UP relief commissioner's office.According to IMD officials, the granular nature of the HSRRF makes it particularly effective in forecasting short-lived weather events such as thunderstorms, which often last for just 30 minutes. Accurate prediction of such events is expected to improve warnings for lightning and intense rainfall.The system is expected to benefit several key sectors, including agriculture, disaster management, water resource planning and infrastructure preparedness.

"Farmers will be able to use the ten-day, location-specific rainfall forecasts to plan sowing, irrigation and harvesting more effectively, while authorities can enhance flood preparedness and disaster risk reduction,"said UP relief commissioner Hrishikesh Bhaskar Yashod.Further improvements are planned with the installation of five new doppler weather radars in Aligarh, Jhansi, Lucknow, Varanasi and Azamgarh. Once operational, data from these radars will be integrated into the model, further enhancing the accuracy and reliability of rainfall forecasts across Uttar Pradesh..