Ceasefire, 'not the end of war': What next for US, Iran, Israel and the Hormuz question

A fragile pause has taken hold in the Middle East after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The deal, announced just hours before US President Donald Trump’s deadline for possible large-scale strikes, is being seen as a temporary reprieve rather than a lasting settlement, with key disagreements still unresolved.The truce comes after weeks of escalating conflict involving US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, and retaliatory attacks by Tehran across the region. At the centre of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes. Iran has agreed to reopen the route for commercial shipping during the ceasefire, easing immediate fears of a prolonged economic shock.Also read: Can Tehran charge toll fee in Strait of Hormuz? What international law saysDespite the agreement, violence has not entirely subsided. Israeli strikes in Lebanon have continued, and missile alerts were reported across parts of the Gulf. The coming fortnight is expected to test whether diplomacy can succeed where military pressure has failed.Pakistan claims to have played a pivotal, if largely behind-the-scenes, role in bringing Washington and Tehran to the negotiating table. Officials in Islamabad maintained contact with both sides, relaying proposals and helping shape what became a provisional ceasefire framework.

Also read: Has the war ended? 10 things to know about the US-Iran ceasefireAccording to statements from Shehbaz Sharif, the breakthrough followed direct appeals to delay US military escalation and give diplomacy a chance. Pakistan also pushed for the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key condition that ultimately formed part of the agreement.Sharif has now invited both sides to Islamabad for talks aimed at reaching a “conclusive agreement”. While the US has not formally confirmed attendance, Tehran has indicated willingness to participate.

However, officials familiar with the process caution that trust between the two sides remains extremely limited, and negotiations are likely to be difficult.

What the ceasefire includes — and what it doesn’t

The two-week ceasefire is conditional and narrowly defined. Iran has agreed to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, though it insists the passage will remain under its supervision. Reports suggest Tehran may seek to impose transit fees alongside Oman, a move that could prove contentious with global powers.Also read: What’s in Tehran’s 10-point proposal to end the warFor Washington, the pause offers time to negotiate limits on Iran’s nuclear programme and regional activities. Trump claimed the US had achieved a “total and complete victory” and said Iran’s uranium issue would be “taken care of” under the agreement.However, major sticking points remain. Iran’s reported 10-point proposal includes demands such as lifting sanctions, withdrawing US forces from the region, and recognising its right to uranium enrichment.

These positions are unlikely to be fully accepted by Washington.Israel, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has backed the ceasefire with Iran but made clear it does not extend to Lebanon, where fighting with Hezbollah continues. This contradiction has already exposed gaps in how different parties interpret the deal.

What happens next

The next phase will hinge on talks expected to begin in Islamabad. Diplomats will attempt to convert the temporary truce into a broader agreement addressing the root causes of the conflict, including Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its network of regional allies.International actors are also stepping in. NATO chief Mark Rutte is set to meet Trump in Washington, while UN Secretary-General António Guterres has urged all sides to honour the ceasefire and pursue a lasting peace.Markets have responded positively so far, with oil and gas prices falling and global equities rising on hopes that the worst of the crisis may have passed. Yet on the ground, the situation remains volatile, with sporadic attacks and deep mistrust between the parties.