In Graphics: What's Madman Theory, And Has It Worked For Donald Trump?

US President Donald Trump is the most visible modern practitioner of the madman theory, but he is far from the first.

Trump is employing a known strategic concept: the “madman theory", first associated with former US President Richard Nixon.

The “madman theory" is a diplomatic strategy in which a leader seeks to gain leverage by appearing irrational, volatile or capable of extreme action.

The concept is often linked to strategic thinking developed during the Cold War.

The strategy depends on one key factor: credibility. Rivals must believe that the leader might actually follow through on extreme threats.

Trump’s approach highlights a key limitation of the strategy. While his warnings were extreme, there were visible doubts about whether he would follow through on the most drastic actions.

The strategy works only if the other side believes the leader might actually act on the threat.

In both Nixon’s Vietnam strategy and Trump’s Iran approach, escalation created pressure, but did not produce a clear, one-sided shift in outcomes.

These statements were followed by shifting deadlines and sudden reversals.

The strategy is typically used when a leader is trying to force an exit from a difficult position.

Nixon used the “madman theory" to pressure both North Vietnam and the Soviet Union by signalling that he was capable of extreme escalation.

North Korea has long relied on exaggerated threats and theatrical displays.

The strategy comes with clear limitations, particularly in how the opposing side interprets the threat.