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It has been over two years since top Tamil actor Vijay launched his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). Yet, with no electoral debut so far, there is little clarity on the party’s potential vote share in the upcoming Tamil Nadu and Puducherry Assembly elections.
Within the party, optimism runs high, with some functionaries informally projecting a vote share of around 25%. Outside, however, estimates vary widely. A section of observers believes TVK could mirror the early performance of late Vijayakanth’s DMDK, securing about 8–10% in its first outing. Others suggest the party could push closer to 15%.
Predicting electoral outcomes in Tamil Nadu has never been straightforward, particularly in Assembly elections. The entry of TVK and of Mr Vijay, a political greenhorn with Chief Ministerial ambitions, has only complicated the arithmetic further.
The party skipped the last Lok Sabha polls and the February 2025 Erode (East) Assembly bypoll. Consequently, its actual support base remains untested. Its decision to go it alone has set the stage for a four-cornered contest in Tamil Nadu.
Was this strategic restraint—avoiding early electoral exposure—a deliberate move by Mr. Vijay to keep his political capital intact ahead of a high-stakes debut?
“Mr. Vijay knows what he is doing. Like in his movies, he is going by the script in politics as well,” said Professor G. Palanithurai, former dean of Students’ Welfare at Gandhigram Rural Institute.
There is a theory that Dravidian rhetoric has killed intellectualism in the State. Professor Palanithurai, who specialises in grass-roots democracy, said he has been visiting campuses, and the lack of political discourse in higher educational institutions has led to the youth gravitating towards the actor over time.
Besides, corruption has been regularised. The ruling DMK and Opposition AIADMK accuse each other of corruption but never take action against each other when in power. “Mr. Vijay has sensed it. That is why he is focusing on anti-corruption to attract voters. Vijayakanth also fought on the anti-corruption theme, but Mr. Vijay is more popular than Vijayakanth. He attracts huge crowds, especially youth. Even the ruling DMK can’t bring in such crowds voluntarily,” he said.
While crediting the Dravidian parties with their developmental policies, both social and industrial, the academician, however, said politics has now become corrupt. “Mr. Vijay is a film personality. He understands the psychology of the masses. The rule of law has now become the ruling party’s law. That is why he is taking on the ruling governments,” he added.
“On the flip side, unlike [actor-turned-Chief Ministers] MGR and Jayalalithaa, Mr. Vijay is not close to the rank and file. He is in isolation all the time. Also, the TVK’s second line of leadership is not impressive. However, Tamil Nadu’s peculiar politics lacks a collective leadership as Dravidianism has shown the way to herding. Mass appeal counts,” he asserted.
Against the ideologically inclined DMK and politically masterful late M. Karunanidhi, it was the personal charisma and political acumen of MGR and J. Jayalalithaa that had kept the AIADMK in power for a longer time than its arch-rival. Mr. Vijay, with his mass appeal, seems to be gradually filling the charismatic leaders’ role.
But is that adequate to penetrate the world of politics? “Popularity in cinema doesn’t always bring votes. We can’t draw a parallel between Mr. Vijay and MGR. MGR had a strong hold in the party, and he broke ranks while he was the treasurer of the DMK. He campaigned and worked hard for all those years. He also brought the underprivileged and the subaltern into his movies. The titles would resonate with communities, like Vivasayi, Padagotti and Meenava Nanban,” said P. Ramajayam, an academician.
“Grass-roots politics requires social and political mobilisation, involving several groups like minorities and subalterns”, he said. “Mr. Vijay’s popularity seems to be higher among the youth. But so far, he has not been tested electorally. He is confident and wants only positive results,” he added.
Long-time political observers feel that apart from the mass appeal, the party needs social and political mobilisation. The TVK should have a strength of about 300 to 400 cadre per booth to secure around 100 votes each. If the party garners 15% of votes, Mr. Vijay would have a future as a politician.
“Mr Vijay is certainly a large crowd puller, and the crowds are organic. Only two leaders do not pay for crowds— [Naam Tamilar Katchi’s] Seeman and Mr. Vijay,” said R. Kannan, biographer of former Chief Ministers C.N. Annadurai and MGR.
Asked if Mr. Vijay would succeed, he says, “May 4 [election counting date] will give the answer.”
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